PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
elegiawin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NNorfloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
elegia
No games played over 6 months.
Norf
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
408 picks · 437 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 318 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 505 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 482 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 533 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% elegia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% elegia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
elegia 67%Norf 33%
The model gave 67% on elegia — the game was taken by elegia in 21:46.
Game 2prediction correct39:14
elegia 67%Norf 33%
The model gave 67% on elegia — the game was taken by elegia in 18:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteelegia · 67%
Series resultelegia 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2