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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hydraloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 6 games
17%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
ArrOw · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Sven
Sven
layme · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%

Hydra

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 438 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 317 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 825 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 506 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 483 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 531 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Winter Bear 58%Hydra 42%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 58%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1