PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MANTA Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
MANTA Esports
Marsoften banned
Kimizu · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
411 picks · 442 bans
Rubick
411 picks · 319 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 877 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 510 bans
Clockwerk
341 picks · 485 bans
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% MANTA Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Carstensz Esports 45%MANTA Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on MANTA Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Carstensz Esports 45%MANTA Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on MANTA Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteMANTA Esports · 55%
Series resultMANTA Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2