PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ascent Esportsloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dark Horsewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ascent Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Dark Horse
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
sheep · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Dark Willowoften banned
sheep · 3 games
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 319 bans
Hoodwink
410 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Ascent Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ascent Esports 34%Dark Horse 66%
The model gave 66% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse.
Game 2prediction correct
Ascent Esports 34%Dark Horse 66%
The model gave 66% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse.
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 66%
Series resultDark Horse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2