PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ssphloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
sph
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 319 bans
Hoodwink
410 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% sph
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Spiky Gaming 65%sph 35%
The model gave 65% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Spiky Gaming 65%sph 35%
The model gave 65% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 65%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2