PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Qhali
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Argius · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 1 game
Doomoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 318 bans
Hoodwink
410 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 877 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
Qhali 45%South Team 55%
The model gave 55% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 40:59.
Game 2prediction missed34:6
Qhali 45%South Team 55%
The model gave 55% on South Team — the game was taken by Qhali in 28:58.
Game 3prediction correct23:10
Qhali 45%South Team 55%
The model gave 55% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 25:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 55%
Series resultSouth Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3