PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Foward Observation Grouploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Grimstroke
Genek · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
555k · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Foward Observation Group
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 318 bans
Hoodwink
410 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 877 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Foward Observation Group
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Lava 62%Foward Observation Group 38%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Game 2prediction missed
Lava 62%Foward Observation Group 38%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by Foward Observation Group.
Game 3prediction correct
Lava 62%Foward Observation Group 38%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 62%
Series resultLava 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3