PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSskem&friendswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
skem&friends
No games played over 6 months.
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorblade
Ksh · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
418 picks · 316 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 441 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 827 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 884 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 512 bans
Clockwerk
349 picks · 485 bans
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% skem&friends
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% skem&friends
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
skem&friends 60%Yangon Galacticos 40%
The model gave 60% on skem&friends — the game was taken by skem&friends in 30:11.
Game 2prediction correct15:40
skem&friends 60%Yangon Galacticos 40%
The model gave 60% on skem&friends — the game was taken by skem&friends in 30:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteskem&friends · 60%
Series resultskem&friends 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2