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Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FTSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 10 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 7 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
krol9ash · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 6 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
20%

FTS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantress
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
raregods · 1 game
0%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
cutie · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 363 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
364 picks · 650 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
347 picks · 194 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
337 picks · 381 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 346 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 449 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
308 picks · 233 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
297 picks · 425 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% FTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:36
PuckChamp 44%FTS 56%
The model gave 56% on FTS — the game was taken by FTS in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
47% · 118 games60% · 124 games
Lycanelmo^^
Lycan
Pangolier
Pangolierxn丶e
49% · 144 games55% · 109 games
Lifestealercutie
Lifestealer
Underlord
Underlordkrol9ash
40% · 142 games56% · 42 games
Earth SpiritKatsura
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressHyugadoto
44% · 76 games49% · 65 games
Miranararegods
Mirana
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGothic-
52% · 86 games48% · 226 games
RingmasterJANTER
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct21:25
PuckChamp 44%FTS 56%
The model gave 56% on FTS — the game was taken by FTS in 47:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuragi
54% · 87 games51% · 83 games
Clinkzcutie
Clinkz
Lina
Linaxn丶e
41% · 33 games48% · 186 games
Underlordelmo^^
Underlord
Axe
Axekrol9ash
48% · 159 games50% · 162 games
Dragon KnightKatsura
Dragon Knight
Largo
LargoGothic-
47% · 153 games61% · 128 games
Keeper of the Lightraregods
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
44% · 197 games53% · 70 games
LichJANTER
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteFTS · 62%
Series resultFTS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2