CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
No games played over 6 months.
Night Pulse
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Kami · 16 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
JANTER · 15 games
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 14 games
Svensignature
V-Tune · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
420 picks · 309 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 437 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 823 bans
Tiny
390 picks · 886 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 712 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
351 picks · 482 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:17
AVULUS 30%Night Pulse 70%
The model gave 70% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:58.
Game 2prediction correct38:47
AVULUS 30%Night Pulse 70%
The model gave 70% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 51:36.
Game 3prediction correct15:49
AVULUS 30%Night Pulse 70%
The model gave 70% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 35:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 70%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3