PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEvolutionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Rabbit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 3 games
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Evolution
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
420 picks · 309 bans
Hoodwink
415 picks · 438 bans
Weaver
394 picks · 823 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 887 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 712 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
351 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 533 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Evil Rabbit 60%Evolution 40%
The model gave 60% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit.
Game 2prediction correct
Evil Rabbit 60%Evolution 40%
The model gave 60% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 60%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2