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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitwin 1:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Trustloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
100%

Team Trust

Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
出省 · 2 games
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
冷鸟 · 2 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Mercury · 2 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
出省 · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
冷鸟 · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
冷鸟 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
420 picks · 309 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
415 picks · 438 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
394 picks · 823 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 887 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 712 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 513 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
351 picks · 483 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 533 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Evil Rabbit 69%Team Trust 31%
The model gave 69% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 69%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1