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CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monteloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 15 games
53%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
JANTER · 13 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
38%

Monte

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 11 games
36%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
27%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
415 picks · 308 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
412 picks · 430 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 894 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
392 picks · 820 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 521 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
360 picks · 712 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 483 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 527 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 34%
Hero pool strength57% Night Pulse
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:15
Night Pulse 63%Monte 37%
The model gave 63% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 49:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWorick
45% · 67 games54% · 175 games
Templar AssassinCrystallize
Templar Assassin
Luna
LunaV-Tune
50% · 142 games57% · 109 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Lycan
LycanKami
55% · 26 games49% · 17 games
VisageVladikTheHtiviy
Visage
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
43% · 183 games57% · 94 games
Elder TitanEcNart
Elder Titan
Sven
SvenHduo
45% · 200 games49% · 223 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed15:30
Night Pulse 62%Monte 38%
The model gave 62% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Monte in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWorick
50% · 80 games47% · 53 games
Shadow FiendCrystallize
Shadow Fiend
Slark
SlarkV-Tune
53% · 88 games46% · 165 games
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
Brewmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerKami
51% · 35 games54% · 107 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
51% · 204 games47% · 238 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderJANTER
45% · 230 games61% · 74 games
Elder TitanEcNart
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct26:29
Night Pulse 65%Monte 35%
The model gave 65% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 54:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendV-Tune
49% · 87 games48% · 50 games
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
47% · 137 games49% · 165 games
WindrangerCrystallize
Windranger
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderKami
61% · 37 games52% · 133 games
BeastmasterVladikTheHtiviy
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderJANTER
50% · 225 games41% · 304 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Sven
SvenHduo
52% · 280 games57% · 114 games
Elder TitanEcNart
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 75%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3