Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NHNo Hoodwinkwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
egx · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
Dark Willow
Zayac · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
Tinysignature
chempik · 8 games
No Hoodwink
Mirana
Katari_ · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 3 games
Enchantress
asdekor_r · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
re1bl · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Baneoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Broodmother
rubikon155 · 2 games
Dark Willow
Katari_ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
499 picks · 363 bans
Clockwerk
365 picks · 651 bans
Rubick
349 picks · 195 bans
Bane
335 picks · 379 bans
Tiny
322 picks · 349 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 448 bans
Windranger
310 picks · 233 bans
Snapfire
297 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:15
Ilbirs eSports 57%No Hoodwink 43%
The model gave 57% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna423
Viperre1bl
DawnbreakerNorma
Tinyrubikon155
Storm Spiritniche
DoomInfernal
UndyingPonlo
Keeper of the LightKatari_
HoodwinkFernans
Baneasdekor_r
Game 2prediction missed9:25
Ilbirs eSports 56%No Hoodwink 44%
The model gave 56% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet423
Svenrubikon155
LargoNorma
Linare1bl
Earth Spiritniche
Dawnbreakermangekyou
Dark WillowFernans
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
DazzlePonlo
LionKatari_
Game 3prediction missed8:18
Ilbirs eSports 58%No Hoodwink 42%
The model gave 58% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna423
Necrophosre1bl
PangolierNorma
Beastmasterrubikon155
Ember Spiritniche
Broodmothermangekyou
HoodwinkFernans
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
EnchantressPonlo
LionKatari_
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 62%
Series resultNo Hoodwink 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3