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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 29 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 19 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 11 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 10 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 419 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
408 picks · 305 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 899 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
392 picks · 810 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
351 picks · 706 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 480 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 385 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Team Spirit 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYatoro
69% · 24 games53% · 110 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
46% · 203 games45% · 130 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
58% · 68 games46% · 90 games
MarciGhost
Marci
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
54% · 88 games49% · 116 games
JakiroOneJey
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerMira
45% · 124 games49% · 61 game
IoGH
Io
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Team Spirit 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYatoro
44% · 5 games45% · 73 games
MarciGhost
Marci
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
47% · 200 games55% · 79 games
Sand KingSumaiL
Sand King
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
55% · 62 games42% · 15 games
LycanFbz
Lycan
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
55% · 55 games47% · 48 games
IoGH
Io
Jakiro
JakiroMira
43% · 62 games55% · 169 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct32:9
Team Spirit 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
57% · 118 games44% · 49 games
LinaGhost
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
47% · 89 games52% · 15 games
LycanFbz
Lycan
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
46% · 55 games43% · 255 games
RubickSumaiL
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
53% · 216 games52% · 190 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
54% · 97 games51% · 66 games
PugnaOneJey
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 82%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3