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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 6 games
83%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
KJ · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axe
Wisper · 5 games
60%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 4 games
75%
Kez
Kezoften banned
TaiLung · 4 games
75%
Windranger
Windranger
Thiolicor · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
KJ · 3 games
100%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 29 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 24 games
63%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zayac · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
592 picks · 362 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 579 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
479 picks · 259 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 384 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
398 picks · 548 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 906 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
331 picks · 835 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 469 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
LGD Gaming 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
50% · 519 games48% · 185 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Luna
LunaYuma
52% · 158 games46% · 317 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawTaiLung
49% · 357 games48% · 388 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeThiolicor
50% · 149 games44% · 361 game
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneKJ
62% · 283 games50% · 215 games
Shadow DemonRiddys
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed43:38
LGD Gaming 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
42% · 87 games54% · 106 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
48% · 87 games50% · 120 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperTaiLung
50% · 122 games53% · 85 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
46% · 193 games57% · 99 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
45% · 187 games54% · 266 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct26:13
LGD Gaming 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderWisper
52% · 284 games50% · 223 games
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Huskar
HuskarTaiLung
53% · 67 games45% · 423 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Kez
KezYuma
53% · 109 games49% · 80 games
Enigmapma
Enigma
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
48% · 252 games50% · 147 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKJ
53% · 390 games48% · 229 games
ClockwerkDaze
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 55%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3