?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 38 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 31 game
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%

Execration

Razor
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 10 games
30%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
407 picks · 419 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 303 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 897 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 809 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 534 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
349 picks · 703 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
346 picks · 479 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 382 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:28
OG 70%Execration 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by Execration in 43:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTimado
35% · 8 games52% · 70 games
SlarkAbat
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
61% · 79 games49% · 84 games
Earth SpiritTino-
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
52% · 64 games44% · 62 games
Nyx AssassinShanks
Nyx Assassin
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
50% · 60 games47% · 87 games
Elder Titancml
Elder Titan
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
47% · 92 games
Game 2prediction correct45:23
OG 70%Execration 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorbzm
42% · 92 games54% · 160 games
Troll WarlordAbat
Troll Warlord
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
52% · 75 games47% · 84 games
Earth SpiritTino-
Earth Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
50% · 90 games54% · 198 games
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Monkey King
Monkey KingAri
48% · 59 games57% · 26 games
Nyx AssassinShanks
Nyx Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
46% · 152 games
Game 3prediction missed37:31
OG 70%Execration 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by Execration in 53:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzTimado
57% · 59 games48% · 123 games
UrsaAbat
Ursa
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbzm
53% · 59 games42% · 155 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
57% · 128 games47% · 169 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Monkey King
Monkey KingAri
54% · 72 games51% · 172 games
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
44% · 301 game
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 85%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3