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CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DMSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
JANTER · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 13 games
62%

DMS

Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 4 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
407 picks · 419 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 303 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 897 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 809 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 534 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
349 picks · 703 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
346 picks · 479 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 382 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Night Pulse 79%DMS 21%
The model gave 79% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by DMS.
Game 2prediction correct
Night Pulse 79%DMS 21%
The model gave 79% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Game 3prediction correct
Night Pulse 79%DMS 21%
The model gave 79% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 79%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3