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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 18 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 11 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 10 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 12 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
406 picks · 302 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 419 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 897 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 807 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 535 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
347 picks · 700 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
344 picks · 478 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 382 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:18
Nigma Galaxy 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
51% · 285 games48% · 82 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
57% · 40 games48% · 274 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
53% · 279 games51% · 185 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
54% · 259 games48% · 291 game
RubickZayac
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroOneJey
46% · 215 games47% · 246 games
SvenMalady
Sven
Game 2prediction missed33:20
Nigma Galaxy 46%Natus Vincere 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerGhost
52% · 19 games44% · 106 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanFbz
53% · 30 games47% · 77 games
Shadow FiendSancity
Shadow Fiend
Rubick
RubickSumaiL
47% · 202 games53% · 207 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
54% · 116 games49% · 37 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Jakiro
JakiroOneJey
53% · 68 games51% · 8 games
LichMalady
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2