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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 28 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 27 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 31 game
68%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 30 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 28 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 19 games
68%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
405 picks · 301 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 418 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 898 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 805 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 535 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
346 picks · 699 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
343 picks · 478 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 382 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total54% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
Team Spirit 48%Xtreme Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
47% · 155 games54% · 77 games
Troll WarlordAme
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeCollapse
47% · 44 games46% · 86 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
53% · 94 games51% · 118 games
PangolierXm
Pangolier
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
53% · 49 games52% · 77 games
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroMira
49% · 173 games48% · 157 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct9:32
Team Spirit 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
45% · 209 games52% · 105 games
Shadow FiendAme
Shadow Fiend
Visage
VisageCollapse
51% · 37 games53% · 98 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Rubick
RubickLarl
46% · 257 games55% · 161 game
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 205 games51% · 229 games
TimbersawXinQ
Timbersaw
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
50% · 105 games50% · 220 games
ClockwerkDy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 54%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2