Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
Sven
Arteezy · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Execration
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
Elder Titan
cml · 12 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
cml · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
403 picks · 418 bans
Tiny
401 picks · 895 bans
Rubick
399 picks · 301 bans
Weaver
390 picks · 803 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 534 bans
Phoenix
345 picks · 694 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 478 bans
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Shopify Rebellion 73%Execration 27%
The model gave 73% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion.
Game 2prediction missed19:19
Shopify Rebellion 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Execration in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenPakazs
SlarkAbat
PangolierYopaj
VisageTino-
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
RubickShanks
JakiroSkem
Phoenixcml
Game 3prediction missed25:27
Shopify Rebellion 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Execration in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistPakazs
Troll WarlordAbat
PangolierSabeRLight-
Earth SpiritTino-
InvokerYopaj
Visagecml
JakiroSkem
RubickShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3