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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 38 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 36 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 35 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 30 games
70%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 28 games
36%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 896 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
401 picks · 417 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 299 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 803 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 536 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
344 picks · 690 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 478 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 381 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
OG 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 17832:14:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
52% · 175 games52% · 215 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Timbersaw
Timbersawbzm
45% · 139 games50% · 217 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsWisper
53% · 144 games52% · 31 game
Visage33
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
42% · 141 game51% · 202 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
56% · 181 game48% · 115 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct18:41
OG 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
50% · 244 games43% · 24 games
Visage33
Visage
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
47% · 180 games56% · 168 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbzm
49% · 100 games53% · 132 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Marci
MarciAri
53% · 84 games52% · 300 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
47% · 133 games45% · 117 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct22:44
OG 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
47% · 132 games46% · 196 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Mirana
Miranabzm
58% · 72 games42% · 195 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
51% · 130 games56% · 91 game
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsWisper
53% · 153 games51% · 98 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
54% · 180 games46% · 87 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3