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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 12 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 12 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 33 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 24 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Techies
Techies
天命 · 19 games
47%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ori · 18 games
50%
Lion
Lion
fy · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ori · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 415 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 899 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
393 picks · 300 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
386 picks · 803 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 537 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
343 picks · 686 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 477 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 382 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 34%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:33
Natus Vincere 48%Azure Ray 52%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYuragi
51% · 249 games49% · 191 game
Morphlinglou
Morphling
Sniper
SniperSancity
57% · 37 games49% · 263 games
PangolierOri
Pangolier
Underlord
Underlordpma
50% · 95 games50% · 18 games
HuskarFaith_bian
Huskar
Weaver
WeaverMalady
53% · 241 game46% · 256 games
TinypLAnet
Tiny
Techies
TechiesZayac
50% · 200 games48% · 94 games
JakiroFantasy
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed20:19
Natus Vincere 47%Azure Ray 53%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:18:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSancity
48% · 93 games48% · 276 games
Dragon Knightlou
Dragon Knight
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuragi
53% · 174 games59% · 40 games
Outworld DestroyerOri
Outworld Destroyer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
49% · 377 games52% · 187 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
48% · 221 game53% · 374 games
TinypLAnet
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
48% · 353 games45% · 341 game
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed38:28
Natus Vincere 48%Azure Ray 52%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 59:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
50% · 45 games52% · 160 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
53% · 144 games55% · 101 game
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
47% · 145 games55% · 55 games
DazzleOri
Dazzle
Rubick
RubickZayac
48% · 179 games48% · 281 game
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
45% · 253 games50% · 169 games
JakiroFantasy
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3