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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 11 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 10 games
50%

Talon Esports

Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 17 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
54%
Sven
Svensignature
Akashi · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 414 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 896 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 298 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 802 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 537 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
343 picks · 683 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 477 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 382 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:28
Nigma Galaxy 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordGhost
50% · 116 games50% · 157 games
MorphlingAkashi
Morphling
Lycan
LycanFbz
47% · 18 games48% · 126 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Weaver
WeaverOneJey
53% · 177 games46% · 112 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Sand King
Sand KingSumaiL
53% · 86 games52% · 47 games
Nyx AssassinJhocam
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
47% · 149 games52% · 104 games
JakiroPonyo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed14:44
Nigma Galaxy 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordGhost
57% · 137 games52% · 87 games
WindrangerAkashi
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
54% · 175 games43% · 93 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingSumaiL
58% · 76 games48% · 120 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOneJey
53% · 46 games42% · 157 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
49% · 39 games35% · 16 games
UndyingPonyo
Undying
Game 3prediction missed45:20
Nigma Galaxy 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
58% · 54 games48% · 175 games
MorphlingAkashi
Morphling
Ursa
UrsaGhost
49% · 94 games45% · 139 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
50% · 250 games56% · 119 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Weaver
WeaverOneJey
53% · 246 games48% · 154 games
EnchantressJhocam
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroGH
48% · 125 games47% · 182 games
ClockwerkPonyo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3