Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tinysignature
Noticed · 30 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
Rubick
Antares · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
sayuw · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 16 games
Talon Esports
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 17 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
Svensignature
Akashi · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
405 picks · 413 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 894 bans
Rubick
394 picks · 296 bans
Weaver
383 picks · 803 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 537 bans
Phoenix
343 picks · 680 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 477 bans
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:37
Virtus.pro 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightKiritych
MarciAkashi
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Outworld DestroyerMikoto
UnderlordNoticed
BeastmasterWs
JakiroRein
SnapfireJhocam
47% · 56 games
IoPonyo
Game 2prediction missed7:42
Virtus.pro 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 24:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritSquad1x
MarciAkashi
Faceless VoidKiritych
Dragon KnightWs
Primal BeastNoticed
Ember SpiritMikoto
EnchantressRein
Crystal MaidenJhocam
59% · 64 games
IoPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 52%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2