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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 11 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 10 games
50%

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 20 games
35%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 13 games
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 413 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 890 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 295 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
382 picks · 803 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 537 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
342 picks · 677 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 476 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 383 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 38%LGD Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming.
Game 2prediction missed40:12
Nigma Galaxy 46%LGD Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaGhost
47% · 109 games50% · 264 games
Svenshiro
Sven
Rubick
RubickSumaiL
45% · 388 games47% · 82 games
Shadow FiendEcho
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
54% · 94 games49% · 288 games
Pangolierniu
Pangolier
Weaver
WeaverOneJey
54% · 253 games48% · 160 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
55% · 160 games51% · 210 games
ClockwerkPyw
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct19:30
Nigma Galaxy 46%LGD Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaGhost
52% · 104 games44% · 225 games
Dragon Knightshiro
Dragon Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
46% · 76 games48% · 204 games
TimbersawEcho
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
56% · 271 game53% · 214 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
57% · 176 games49% · 273 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickGH
52% · 398 games44% · 109 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 62%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3