Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 29 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 20 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 20 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Sacred · 15 games
OG
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 36 games
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
401 picks · 881 bans
Hoodwink
400 picks · 406 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 294 bans
Weaver
381 picks · 793 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 533 bans
Phoenix
337 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 476 bans
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:44
BOOM Esports 32%OG 68%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingParker
Chaos KnightTimado
TinyDarkMago
TimbersawWisper
PangolierSacred
Primal Beastbzm
RubickMatthew
PhoenixKaori
Crystal MaidenYadomi
SnapfireAri
Game 2prediction correct13:44
BOOM Esports 34%OG 66%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistDarkMago
SvenTimado
Chaos KnightParker
Beastmasterbzm
Sand KingSacred
HoodwinkAri
SnapfireMatthew
EnigmaWisper
WeaverYadomi
PhoenixKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 81%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2