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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 35 games
51%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 34 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 30 games
70%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 876 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 404 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 293 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
379 picks · 791 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 531 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
337 picks · 673 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 475 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 378 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:19
Shopify Rebellion 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 53:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPakazs
45% · 215 games53% · 62 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
42% · 77 games49% · 50 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
58% · 97 games49% · 116 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Jakiro
JakiroSkem
50% · 124 games50% · 87 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
55% · 198 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct16:31
Shopify Rebellion 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
45% · 231 game49% · 122 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
47% · 176 games51% · 33 games
Shadow FiendNisha
Shadow Fiend
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
46% · 23 games54% · 175 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Sven
SvenSkem
49% · 232 games54% · 148 games
WeaverBoxi
Weaver
58% · 184 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct32:32
Shopify Rebellion 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYopaj
66% · 65 games42% · 170 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Windranger
WindrangerPakazs
47% · 213 games45% · 226 games
Pangolier33
Pangolier
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
48% · 205 games46% · 146 games
Vengeful SpiritmiCKe
Vengeful Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
54% · 245 games48% · 152 games
WeaverBoxi
Weaver
59% · 34 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3