Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 22 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 21 game
Sven
Yuma · 20 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 19 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 17 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
401 picks · 873 bans
Hoodwink
398 picks · 404 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 293 bans
Weaver
379 picks · 788 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 529 bans
Phoenix
335 picks · 673 bans
Clockwerk
334 picks · 475 bans
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:23
nouns 70%beastcoast 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by beastcoast in 43:46.
Game 2prediction correct29:39
nouns 70%beastcoast 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:04:31.
Game 3prediction missed13:28
nouns 70%beastcoast 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:31.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 70%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3