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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 29 games
62%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 21 game
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 20 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 17 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 874 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 403 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 292 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
377 picks · 788 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 531 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
335 picks · 673 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 475 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 378 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:22
Execration 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAbat
46% · 263 games56% · 260 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
52% · 185 games47% · 199 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
49% · 314 games44% · 78 games
UnderlordSacred
Underlord
Sven
Svencml
53% · 287 games50% · 336 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
53% · 176 games
WeaverYadomi
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct21:27
Execration 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAbat
50% · 33 games47% · 98 games
MedusaParker
Medusa
Doom
DoomTino-
51% · 175 games52% · 57 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Weaver
WeaverShanks
51% · 198 games48% · 188 games
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Sven
Svencml
49% · 202 games48% · 103 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
53% · 162 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 52%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2