?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 25 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 18 games
78%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 35 games
51%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 871 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 401 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 290 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
375 picks · 787 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 531 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 475 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
332 picks · 673 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 377 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:29
1w Team 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 54:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
45% · 140 games51% · 150 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
46% · 269 games46% · 248 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
50% · 132 games62% · 120 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
46% · 214 games55% · 118 games
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
51% · 186 games48% · 305 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed30:38
1w Team 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMunkushi~
56% · 127 games47% · 175 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
56% · 87 games55% · 234 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCloud
52% · 267 games47% · 265 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickRESPECT
48% · 396 games48% · 184 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Windranger
Windrangerswedenstrong
45% · 216 games47% · 235 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct19:39
1w Team 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
57% · 102 games52% · 93 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
51% · 78 games51% · 162 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomCloud
55% · 167 games49% · 294 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Windranger
Windrangerswedenstrong
47% · 141 game45% · 197 games
SnapfireAri
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
43% · 302 games52% · 44 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3