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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 27 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 22 games
55%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 20 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Yuma · 20 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 399 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 872 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 289 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
375 picks · 783 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 532 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 475 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
331 picks · 670 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 376 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head3 – 7
Model total57% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:25
nouns 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
51% · 206 games48% · 237 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Puck
PuckCopy
59% · 185 games49% · 377 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterGunnar
45% · 216 games53% · 113 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
46% · 205 games48% · 303 games
Crystal MaidenSkem
Crystal Maiden
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLelis
50% · 218 games
Game 2prediction missed33:14
nouns 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
46% · 145 games45% · 190 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyCopy
51% · 162 games57% · 76 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Doom
DoomGunnar
48% · 111 games52% · 311 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 139 games52% · 144 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Rubick
RubickLelis
45% · 164 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 57%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2