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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
70%
Razor
Razoroften banned
7e · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 9 games
33%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 23 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 861 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
397 picks · 396 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 286 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
369 picks · 778 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 530 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 475 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
327 picks · 665 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 376 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:22
Team Zero 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Zero in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpoyoyo
49% · 158 games51% · 131 game
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Pangolier
Pangolier7e
46% · 242 games56% · 215 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerBEYOND
51% · 118 games57% · 49 games
Nyx AssassinCollapse
Nyx Assassin
Phoenix
Phoenixzzq
48% · 252 games50% · 224 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPonlo
50% · 86 games45% · 237 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct9:27
Team Zero 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 23:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpoyoyo
46% · 177 games49% · 281 game
Dragon KnightYatoro
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
Snapfire7e
43% · 143 games57% · 142 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Pangolier
PangolierBEYOND
48% · 255 games51% · 142 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderPonlo
49% · 223 games49% · 341 game
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Sven
Svenzzq
54% · 213 games53% · 105 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 3prediction correct5:25
Team Zero 24%Team Spirit 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
57% · 137 games51% · 117 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawBEYOND
48% · 121 game42% · 47 games
Sand KingLarl
Sand King
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight7e
46% · 180 games54% · 176 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Morphling
MorphlingPonlo
48% · 132 games47% · 287 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
50% · 172 games54% · 115 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3