Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Tinyoften banned
fy · 34 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
Techies
天命 · 20 games
Razoroften banned
Ori · 18 games
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 18 games
Hoodwink
fy · 17 games
Lion
fy · 17 games
Talon Esports
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 16 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Ws · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
398 picks · 857 bans
Hoodwink
396 picks · 394 bans
Rubick
378 picks · 284 bans
Weaver
366 picks · 777 bans
Clockwerk
333 picks · 474 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 530 bans
Phoenix
325 picks · 664 bans
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:11
Azure Ray 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightlou
WeaverAkashi
PangolierOri
Sand KingMikoto
Dark SeerFaith_bian
BrewmasterWs
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
HoodwinkJhocam
RubickFantasy
Elder TitanPonyo
Game 2prediction missed32:18
Azure Ray 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingFaith_bian
Ember SpiritMikoto
Faceless Voidlou
MorphlingAkashi
Primal BeastOri
PangolierWs
SnapfirepLAnet
WeaverJhocam
GrimstrokeFantasy
PhoenixPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 52%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2