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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Zerowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 18 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 12 games
42%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%

Team Zero

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
70%
Razor
Razoroften banned
7e · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 851 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
395 picks · 392 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 283 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
365 picks · 773 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 473 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 529 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
322 picks · 662 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 375 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Natus Vincere 62%Team Zero 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuragi
53% · 151 game52% · 276 games
Svenpoyoyo
Sven
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
53% · 168 games43% · 188 games
Timbersaw7e
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
46% · 209 games55% · 262 games
Primal BeastBEYOND
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickZayac
45% · 469 games52% · 326 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Crystal Maiden
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
51% · 256 games51% · 201 game
GrimstrokePonlo
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed25:30
Natus Vincere 60%Team Zero 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Zero in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciYuragi
59% · 123 games42% · 217 games
Dragon Knightpoyoyo
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
52% · 145 games49% · 177 games
WindrangerBEYOND
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
49% · 275 games50% · 61 game
Sand King7e
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
51% · 184 games51% · 266 games
Phoenixzzq
Phoenix
Monkey King
Monkey KingZayac
51% · 87 games49% · 93 games
Spirit BreakerPonlo
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed28:30
Natus Vincere 61%Team Zero 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Zero in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuragi
61% · 111 games50% · 178 games
Svenpoyoyo
Sven
Lina
LinaSancity
44% · 98 games59% · 55 games
Sand King7e
Sand King
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
50% · 171 game54% · 116 games
Primal BeastBEYOND
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
43% · 149 games43% · 174 games
Phoenixzzq
Phoenix
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerZayac
51% · 81 game49% · 87 games
WindrangerPonlo
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 70%
Series resultTeam Zero 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3