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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 28 games
64%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 22 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 21 game
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 19 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
31%

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 850 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 391 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
375 picks · 281 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
365 picks · 772 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 473 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 528 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
322 picks · 662 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 374 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:43
BOOM Esports 41%Shopify Rebellion 59%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
43% · 135 games53% · 147 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Pangolier
PangolierSacred
49% · 159 games50% · 62 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
45% · 23 games50% · 300 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
50% · 177 games48% · 124 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYadomi
59% · 139 games
Game 2prediction missed27:16
BOOM Esports 42%Shopify Rebellion 58%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
44% · 68 games55% · 98 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDarkMago
50% · 168 games57% · 318 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterSacred
46% · 62 games56% · 20 games
NecrophosSabeRLight-
Necrophos
Rubick
RubickMatthew
46% · 238 games47% · 132 games
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
47% · 32 games
Game 3prediction correct6:33
BOOM Esports 40%Shopify Rebellion 60%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 24:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenParker
48% · 130 games54% · 83 games
UrsaPakazs
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
45% · 72 games58% · 262 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterSacred
37% · 73 games54% · 41 game
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
Legion Commander
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
44% · 184 games57% · 105 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
49% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 68%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3