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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 35 games
51%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 34 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 30 games
70%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 37 games
49%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 848 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
390 picks · 390 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
375 picks · 278 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
364 picks · 768 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
330 picks · 473 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 524 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
320 picks · 660 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 374 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Team Liquid 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordmiCKe
50% · 138 games61% · 55 games
AlchemistTimado
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand King33
55% · 70 games49% · 148 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleNisha
58% · 38 games46% · 120 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
44% · 90 games48% · 138 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
43% · 193 games54% · 68 games
Monkey KingAri
Monkey King
Game 2prediction correct27:18
Team Liquid 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordmiCKe
48% · 125 games58% · 86 games
AlchemistTimado
Alchemist
Tiny
TinyNisha
54% · 246 games42% · 160 games
Snapfirebzm
Snapfire
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
47% · 85 games48% · 173 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
51% · 229 games55% · 87 games
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
45% · 39 games50% · 218 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed36:30
Team Liquid 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand King33
50% · 60 games48% · 124 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Razor
RazormiCKe
44% · 112 games56% · 166 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyNisha
53% · 273 games46% · 170 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
49% · 217 games48% · 235 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
54% · 112 games51% · 79 games
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3