Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 26 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 18 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Windrangeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
390 picks · 844 bans
Hoodwink
387 picks · 388 bans
Rubick
375 picks · 273 bans
Weaver
361 picks · 765 bans
Clockwerk
327 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 520 bans
Phoenix
318 picks · 658 bans
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 70%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:23
BOOM Esports 41%1w Team 59%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterParker
BroodmotherMunkushi~
MarsDarkMago
Dark SeerCloud
BrewmasterSacred
Weaverswedenstrong
HoodwinkMatthew
TinyChira JUNIOR
Crystal MaidenYadomi
JakiroRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct8:36
BOOM Esports 39%1w Team 61%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterParker
PangolierChira JUNIOR
MarsDarkMago
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Dark SeerSacred
BeastmasterCloud
Crystal MaidenYadomi
Weaverswedenstrong
TuskMatthew
ClockwerkRESPECT
Game 3prediction correct4:20
BOOM Esports 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritDarkMago
SvenMunkushi~
MorphlingParker
TinyChira JUNIOR
Dark SeerSacred
EnigmaCloud
HoodwinkMatthew
Marciswedenstrong
PhoenixYadomi
EnchantressRESPECT
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3