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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 8 games
38%

Team Liquid

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 34 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 34 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 30 games
70%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 842 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 386 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 272 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
359 picks · 762 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
327 picks · 473 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 522 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
317 picks · 656 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 372 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
Execration 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerAbat
53% · 172 games57% · 166 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Io
IoTino-
52% · 61 game53% · 32 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Tusk
TuskShanks
42% · 106 games49% · 183 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Rubick
Rubickcml
47% · 339 games50% · 194 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
51% · 103 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct24:35
Execration 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAbat
50% · 210 games43% · 94 games
Troll WarlordmiCKe
Troll Warlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTino-
53% · 114 games50% · 83 games
Doom33
Doom
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinShanks
56% · 33 games48% · 170 games
Primal BeastNisha
Primal Beast
Sven
Svencml
55% · 312 games47% · 233 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
47% · 89 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2