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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 21 game
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Sven
Sven
Yuma · 17 games
53%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 35 games
51%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 27 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 842 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 386 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 272 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
359 picks · 762 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
327 picks · 473 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 522 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
317 picks · 656 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 372 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:29
nouns 37%OG 63%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
47% · 220 games48% · 356 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterGunnar
55% · 192 games42% · 200 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyCopy
54% · 302 games53% · 189 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciLelis
55% · 75 games43% · 153 games
SnapfireAri
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 207 games53% · 98 games
IoKaori
Io
Game 2prediction missed33:20
nouns 36%OG 64%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by nouns in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuma
56% · 115 games52% · 82 games
AlchemistTimado
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand KingGunnar
53% · 93 games50% · 93 games
Shadow Fiendbzm
Shadow Fiend
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCopy
48% · 85 games54% · 159 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Windranger
WindrangerLelis
51% · 152 games51% · 204 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
41% · 201 game42% · 108 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed31:13
nouns 37%OG 63%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by nouns in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
51% · 231 game50% · 189 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyCopy
51% · 331 game49% · 298 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
45% · 294 games54% · 433 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickLelis
45% · 316 games48% · 417 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
51% · 272 games54% · 107 games
IoKaori
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 75%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3