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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 20 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sayuw · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Noticed · 15 games
60%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 27 games
41%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 23 games
48%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 23 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 838 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
382 picks · 386 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
371 picks · 271 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
357 picks · 759 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
326 picks · 473 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 523 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 654 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
312 picks · 373 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:23
Virtus.pro 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
51% · 289 games51% · 63 games
AlchemistYatoro
Alchemist
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
48% · 148 games44% · 160 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
47% · 69 games57% · 158 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Windranger
WindrangerRein
50% · 178 games51% · 183 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
52% · 120 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct18:38
Virtus.pro 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSquad1x
51% · 101 game37% · 129 games
Dragon KnightYatoro
Dragon Knight
Weaver
WeaverKiritych
50% · 248 games60% · 130 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
43% · 90 games51% · 183 games
RubickLarl
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRein
52% · 223 games49% · 124 games
BatriderMiposhka
Batrider
58% · 96 games
JakiroMira
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed33:21
Virtus.pro 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:01:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
56% · 113 games50% · 62 games
BroodmotherYatoro
Broodmother
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
53% · 128 games51% · 145 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
55% · 166 games50% · 104 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixRein
42% · 186 games44% · 204 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
51% · 78 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3