Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 18 games
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
Sven
Yuragi · 12 games
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Tinysignature
Zayac · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
Virtus.pro
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
Rubick
Antares · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
sayuw · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 16 games
Marssignature
Noticed · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
391 picks · 834 bans
Hoodwink
381 picks · 384 bans
Rubick
370 picks · 269 bans
Weaver
357 picks · 755 bans
Clockwerk
325 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 522 bans
Phoenix
316 picks · 651 bans
Gyrocopter
312 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total58% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Natus Vincere 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere.
Game 2prediction correct27:9
Natus Vincere 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 22:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSancity
SvenKiritych
Dark Seerpma
DoomNoticed
Ember SpiritYuragi
HuskarSquad1x
JakiroMalady
ChenRein
Nyx AssassinZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2