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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 27 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 34 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
52%
Techies
Techies
天命 · 21 game
52%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 20 games
50%
Lion
Lion
fy · 19 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
fy · 18 games
39%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 834 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 384 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
370 picks · 269 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
357 picks · 755 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 473 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 522 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 651 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
312 picks · 373 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 32%
Hero pool strength60% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total81% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:31
Xtreme Gaming 70%Azure Ray 30%
The model gave 70% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
57% · 126 games54% · 169 games
Svenlou
Sven
Doom
DoomXxs
49% · 175 games43% · 150 games
RazorOri
Razor
Viper
ViperXm
50% · 34 games53% · 33 games
UnderlordFaith_bian
Underlord
Morphling
MorphlingXinQ
49% · 202 games53% · 62 games
Elder TitanFantasy
Elder Titan
Chen
ChenDy
56% · 79 games42% · 202 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct20:5
Xtreme Gaming 69%Azure Ray 31%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 16:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
51% · 305 games47% · 205 games
Svenlou
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
54% · 224 games49% · 315 games
PangolierFaith_bian
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
48% · 364 games47% · 205 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Oracle
OracleXinQ
46% · 56 games56% · 146 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
44% · 158 games57% · 236 games
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct19:9
Xtreme Gaming 69%Azure Ray 31%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherAme
43% · 65 games51% · 178 games
Svenlou
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
57% · 193 games48% · 105 games
PuckOri
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
50% · 301 game50% · 139 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Oracle
OracleXinQ
51% · 44 games51% · 177 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroDy
46% · 131 game51% · 135 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 81%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3