Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 35 games
Rubick
Ari · 35 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
Batridersignature
Ari · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
388 picks · 829 bans
Hoodwink
380 picks · 378 bans
Rubick
369 picks · 267 bans
Weaver
357 picks · 748 bans
Clockwerk
325 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 518 bans
Phoenix
314 picks · 648 bans
Gyrocopter
310 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:40
beastcoast 23%OG 77%
The model gave 77% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:14.
Game 2prediction correct19:47
beastcoast 23%OG 77%
The model gave 77% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 77%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2