Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 8 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Rubick
Shanks · 7 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
384 picks · 825 bans
Hoodwink
375 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
362 picks · 265 bans
Weaver
355 picks · 743 bans
Clockwerk
323 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 513 bans
Phoenix
311 picks · 643 bans
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:29
Execration 36%beastcoast 64%
The model gave 64% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:56.
Game 2prediction missed47:37
Execration 36%beastcoast 64%
The model gave 64% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Execration in 51:01.
Game 3prediction missed24:27
Execration 36%beastcoast 64%
The model gave 64% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Execration in 41:43.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 64%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3