Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 11 games
Sven
Arteezy · 11 games
OG
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 34 games
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
Batridersignature
Ari · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
384 picks · 825 bans
Hoodwink
375 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
362 picks · 265 bans
Weaver
355 picks · 743 bans
Clockwerk
323 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 513 bans
Phoenix
311 picks · 643 bans
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Shopify Rebellion 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterPakazs
AlchemistTimado
SnapfireYopaj
Dragon Knightbzm
Sand KingSabeRLight-
DoomWisper
ClockwerkSkem
HoodwinkAri
52% · 90 games
JakiroKaori
Game 2prediction correct33:36
Shopify Rebellion 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 51:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordPakazs
RazorTimado
Sand KingYopaj
BeastmasterWisper
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Dragon Knightbzm
Crystal MaidenSkem
RubickAri
50% · 147 games
PhoenixKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 57%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2