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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 27 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 15 games
47%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 14 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
30%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 815 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
372 picks · 376 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 263 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 738 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 513 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
309 picks · 639 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 370 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:34
Xtreme Gaming 76%Nigma Galaxy 24%
The model gave 76% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 51:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
45% · 232 games48% · 123 games
LifestealerGhost
Lifestealer
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
47% · 54 games58% · 128 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickXm
48% · 335 games47% · 158 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Chen
ChenDy
56% · 103 games47% · 189 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXinQ
55% · 42 games50% · 168 games
WeaverOneJey
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct23:17
Xtreme Gaming 78%Nigma Galaxy 22%
The model gave 78% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
56% · 77 games50% · 162 games
WindrangerGhost
Windranger
Puck
PuckXm
59% · 183 games50% · 173 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
53% · 232 games39% · 139 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
51% · 167 games44% · 260 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Sven
SvenDy
56% · 198 games42% · 123 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed34:33
Xtreme Gaming 77%Nigma Galaxy 23%
The model gave 77% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 51:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
49% · 88 games53% · 169 games
Troll WarlordGhost
Troll Warlord
Rubick
RubickXm
45% · 200 games51% · 53 games
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
44% · 216 games52% · 232 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
Sven
SvenDy
55% · 154 games54% · 275 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Lion
LionXinQ
49% · 106 games45% · 35 games
Nyx AssassinOneJey
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 92%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3