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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 17 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Sancity · 11 games
36%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 11 games
45%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sancity · 8 games
63%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 26 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 23 games
48%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 812 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
372 picks · 376 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 262 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
353 picks · 739 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 514 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
309 picks · 637 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total82% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:36
Natus Vincere 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherYuragi
40% · 37 games48% · 91 game
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
39% · 168 games61% · 69 games
Sand KingLarl
Sand King
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
54% · 146 games43% · 69 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
45% · 40 games61% · 152 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
49% · 97 games53% · 107 games
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed38:41
Natus Vincere 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 55:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuragi
50% · 210 games57% · 131 game
Chaos KnightYatoro
Chaos Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSancity
44% · 91 game46% · 93 games
ZeusLarl
Zeus
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
50% · 137 games52% · 220 games
BrewmasterCollapse
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickZayac
50% · 265 games48% · 207 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
54% · 72 games50% · 124 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct31:45
Natus Vincere 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuragi
47% · 79 games48% · 95 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
53% · 286 games50% · 200 games
WindrangerYatoro
Windranger
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
44% · 210 games54% · 264 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Techies
TechiesZayac
50% · 187 games49% · 386 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Sven
SvenMalady
47% · 266 games58% · 83 games
Spirit BreakerMiposhka
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 82%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3