Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cuyes Esports
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 8 games
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Execration
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
Elder Titan
cml · 9 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Rubick
Shanks · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
380 picks · 807 bans
Hoodwink
366 picks · 372 bans
Rubick
354 picks · 261 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 733 bans
Clockwerk
319 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
311 picks · 510 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
308 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:27
Cuyes Esports 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherILICH-
Templar AssassinAbat
Chaos KnightMnz
BeastmasterTino-
Crystal MaidenMjz
SnapfireShanks
49% · 110 games
Enchantresscml
Game 2prediction missed28:42
Cuyes Esports 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMnz
TinyAbat
SlardarILICH-
IoTino-
HoodwinkMjz
Weavercml
45% · 48 games
Elder TitanShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 56%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2