Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 34 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 22 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 23 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 20 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Rubick
Lelis · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
379 picks · 806 bans
Hoodwink
365 picks · 371 bans
Rubick
353 picks · 260 bans
Weaver
349 picks · 732 bans
Clockwerk
318 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
310 picks · 510 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
307 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:50
Heroic 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by nouns in 49:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerK1
Monkey KingYuma
Huskar4nalog
TinyCopy
BrewmasterDavai
Spirit BreakerLelis
MarciKJ
PangolierGunnar
WeaverScofield
PhoenixFly
Game 2prediction missed29:32
Heroic 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by nouns in 52:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerK1
Chaos KnightYuma
Shadow Fiend4nalog
WindrangerCopy
Dark SeerDavai
Sand KingGunnar
HoodwinkKJ
RubickLelis
ClockwerkScofield
JakiroFly
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 64%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2